- Record
- 0–0
- Win rate
- —
- Units
- 0
- Return
- —
- Pending
- 0
Every pick posted since 2026-09-18, graded when the game ends.
Nothing is added after kickoff and nothing is deleted. Last updated 2026-09-18.
01The Plays
Take the number shown or better. A worse number is a different bet.
LACvsLV
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Pending
vs Las Vegas Raiders
-110
Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
Top trendChargers have covered 12-5 (71%) in games like this one — indoors, after two straight losses.
TrendChargers have covered 47-31 (60%) in games like this one — divisional game, after an under.
TrendChargers have covered 22-14 (61%) in games like this one — losing record so far, winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
GBatNYJ
Green Bay Packers -3
Pending
at New York Jets
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Top trendPackers have covered 42-25 (63%) in games like this one — 1pm ET kickoff, after a divisional game.
TrendPackers have covered 21-12 (64%) in games like this one — after two straight losses, after an over.
TrendPackers have covered 11-5 (69%) in games like this one — after two straight non-covers, September.
0.33ustaked
PHIatTEN
Philadelphia Eagles -7
Pending
at Tennessee Titans
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Top trendEagles have covered 35-17 (67%) in games like this one — after a divisional game, a total of 41 or less.
TrendEagles have covered 72-49 (60%) in games like this one — on the road, winning team last season.
TrendEagles have covered 51-35 (59%) in games like this one — outdoors, after two straight non-covers.
0.33ustaked
NOatBAL
Under 46.5
Pending
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Top trendRavens games have gone under 24-10 (71%) in games like this one — September, opponent was a losing team last season.
WeatherWind 10 mph S. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph.
TrendSaints games have gone under 19-8 (70%) in games like this one — after a road game, losing team last season.
0.33ustaked
MINatCHI
Under 48.5
Pending
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
-110
Sun Sep 20, 12:00 PM CT
Top trendVikings games have gone under 36-14 (72%) in games like this one — after a win, September.
WeatherHigh wind 20 mph, gusts 28 NE, Rain 72% chance. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph and steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendBears games have gone under 60-43 (58%) in games like this one — after a road game, after an over.
0.33ustaked
CLEatTB
Under 41.5
Pending
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Top trendBuccaneers games have gone under 16-7 (70%) in games like this one — favoured by 7 or more, beaten by a losing team last week.
WeatherThunderstorms 76% chance. Over sixteen seasons, steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendBrowns games have gone under 68-46 (60%) in games like this one — after a loss, coach's first season with the team.
0.33ustaked
PITatNE
Under 41.5
Pending
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Top trendSteelers games have gone under 38-16 (70%) in games like this one — after two straight wins, underdog.
TrendPatriots games have gone under 53-29 (65%) in games like this one — after a loss, favoured.
TrendSteelers games have gone under 41-19 (68%) in games like this one — on the road, after two straight covers.
0.33ustaked
LVatLAC
Over 43.5
Pending
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:05 PM PT
Top trendRaiders games have gone over 30-10 (75%) in games like this one — September, coach's first season with the team.
TrendChargers games have gone over 13-5 (72%) in games like this one — after missing the number by 14+, after two straight losses.
TrendChargers games have gone over 10-5 (67%) in games like this one — after two straight non-covers, winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
WASatDAL
Over 50.5
Pending
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
-110
Sun Sep 20, 3:25 PM CT
Top trendCommanders games have gone over 14-4 (78%) in games like this one — after a loss by 1-7, after two straight covers.
TrendCowboys games have gone over 27-14 (66%) in games like this one — a total of 47 or more, losing record so far.
TrendCowboys games have gone over 21-12 (64%) in games like this one — September, opponent was a losing team last season.
0.33ustaked
FLAatAUB
Florida -2
Pending
at Auburn
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Top trendFlorida has covered 10-3 (77%) in games like this one — conference game, after an outright upset win.
TrendFlorida has covered 12-6 (67%) in games like this one — line within a field goal.
TrendFlorida has covered 11-5 (69%) in games like this one — after an outright upset win.
0.33ustaked
PURatUCLA
Purdue +14.5
Pending
at UCLA
-110
Sat Sep 19, 8:00 PM PT
Top trendPurdue has covered 21-10 (68%) in games like this one — on the road, after a loss.
TrendPurdue has covered 11-6 (65%) in games like this one — after a loss by 1-7, underdog.
TrendPurdue has covered 20-10 (67%) in games like this one — on the road, getting 7 or more.
0.33ustaked
WMUatRICE
Over 43.5
Pending
Western Michigan at Rice
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Top trendRice games have gone over 19-3 (86%) in games like this one — at home, non-conference game.
TrendWestern Michigan games have gone over 11-3 (79%) in games like this one — prime-time kickoff, after a 21+ point win.
TrendRice games have gone over 24-10 (71%) in games like this one — Saturday game, first four weeks.
0.33ustaked
FLAatAUB
Under 53
Pending
Florida at Auburn
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Top trendAuburn games have gone under 11-1 (92%) in games like this one — after a 21+ point win, first four weeks.
WeatherRain 61% chance. Over sixteen seasons, steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendFlorida games have gone under 9-1 (90%) in games like this one — after covering by 17+, favoured.
0.33ustaked
UGAatARK
Under 54.5
Pending
Georgia at Arkansas
-110
Sat Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT
Top trendGeorgia games have gone under 42-21 (67%) in games like this one — Saturday game, after a 21+ point win.
WeatherWind 11 mph. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph.
TrendArkansas games have gone under 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — after a 21+ point loss, opponent was a winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
MSSTatSC
Under 59
Pending
Mississippi State at South Carolina
-110
Sat Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET
Top trendMississippi State games have gone under 24-7 (77%) in games like this one — after covering, after a 21+ point win.
TrendSouth Carolina games have gone under 16-6 (73%) in games like this one — favoured, first four weeks.
TrendMississippi State games have gone under 16-6 (73%) in games like this one — after a road game, after a win.
0.33ustaked
PURatUCLA
Under 53
Pending
Purdue at UCLA
-110
Sat Sep 19, 8:00 PM PT
Top trendUCLA games have gone under 17-6 (74%) in games like this one — late-night kickoff, favoured.
TrendPurdue games have gone under 18-7 (72%) in games like this one — Saturday game, after a loss by 1-7.
TrendUCLA games have gone under 12-4 (75%) in games like this one — after covering, stepping down in class from last week.
0.33ustaked
02The record
Every settled pick, newest first.
Nothing settled yet. The record fills in as games finish.
03House rules
These are not suggestions. Breaking one of them costs more than any pick makes.
No parlays
Every leg you add multiplies the house edge against you. A two-team parlay at −110 pays 2.6–1 when the fair price is 3–1; a five-teamer pays 25–1 against fair odds near 31–1. Same-game parlays are worse still. One bet, one number.
No live betting
In-game prices carry two to four times the margin of a pregame number and move faster than anyone watching a delayed stream can react to. The edge we look for is half a point; live betting gives back several.
Never take a worse number — always take a better one
If the pick says −3 and your book has −3.5, that is not the bet. If it has −2.5, take it. Half a point across 3 in the NFL is worth almost four points of win rate, which is larger than any edge we claim to have in the first place.
Shop every bet across at least three books
The same wager at the best available number rather than the consensus was worth a full point of win rate measured across 7,427 college bets, and three points when the better number crossed 3 or 7. Shopping is the most reliable edge in betting and it is free.
Always check for promos, boosts and bonuses
Odds boosts, risk-free bets and deposit matches are real money and are handed out to keep you playing. Take the ones that apply to a bet you were making anyway. Never make a bet you would not otherwise make in order to clear a promo — that is how they pay for it.
Never bet money you cannot afford to lose
Not money for rent, food, bills or anything with a due date. If losing the bet changes your week, the bet is too big, no matter what the edge is.
One unit = 1% of your bankroll, and it does not move
A $10,000 bankroll is $100 a unit. A $1,000 bankroll is $10 a unit. A $100,000 bankroll is $1,000 a unit. The unit is a fixed share of the roll, not a mood.
Never chase
The stake after a loss is the same as the stake before it. Doubling up to get even is the single fastest way a bankroll goes to zero, and it has nothing to do with whether the next bet is any good.
Write down every bet
Number, price, book, stake, result. Memory keeps the winners and quietly loses the rest. A record you did not keep is a record that says you are doing fine.
Bet the number, not the team
The question is never whether a team is good. It is whether they are better than the price says. A great team at a bad number is a bad bet, and it is the most common one there is.
04Bankroll
One unit is 1% of your bankroll. Pick the roll you can genuinely afford, then let
the unit follow from it.
- $1,000 bankroll
- $10 a unit
- $10,000 bankroll
- $100 a unit
- $100,000 bankroll
- $1,000 a unit
05Worth knowing
Expect to lose a lot of the time
At −110 you need to win 52.4% just to break even. A genuinely good bettor wins 54–56%. That means four losses in ten on a good run, and long losing stretches happen to everyone with a real edge.
Judge the process, not the week
A hundred bets is still a small sample. A winning month does not prove a system and a losing one does not disprove it. Look at whether the numbers were taken at the right price, not at the last five results.
Keep gambling money separate
A separate account or a set amount you top up on a schedule. Mixing it with the money you live on is how the size creeps.
Avoid the parlay that a bad day makes tempting
The bet that gets it all back in one go is always the one with the worst price on the board.
If it stops being fun, stop
Chasing, hiding bets, betting more to feel something, betting to fix a mood — those are not strategy problems. Take a break and talk to someone.
If betting has stopped being entertainment. If you are chasing losses, hiding bets from
people close to you, betting money meant for something else, or betting to change how you feel,
that is worth taking seriously and it is common. In the US, the National Problem Gambling
Helpline is 1-800-522-4700 — call or text, 24/7 and confidential. Most sportsbooks
also offer deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion in their account settings, and using
them early is a lot easier than using them late.
Disclaimer. SomiPicks is one person's opinions on sports betting, published for
entertainment. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a service, and nothing here is
a guarantee of anything. Every pick can lose and most bettors lose money over time. Past results
do not predict future results, and a winning stretch of any length is not evidence that the next
bet will win.
You are responsible for your own bets and for knowing the law where you are. Sports betting is
legal in some jurisdictions and not others, and age limits vary — 21+ in most US states
that permit it, 18+ in some. Do not bet where it is not legal for you to do so.
SomiPicks is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the NFL, the NCAA, any team,
conference or sportsbook. Team names are used for identification only.