Today’s Plays
Take the number shown or better. A worse number is a different bet.
- Record
- 0–0–0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Return
- +0%
Last updated 2026-11-02.
01The record
Record by sport and bet type
| Record | Win % | Return |
|---|
| College football | 26–12–1 | 68% | +38.6% |
|---|
| NFL | 29–26–1 | 53% | −1.0% |
|---|
| Sides | 37–19–2 | 66% | +28.4% |
|---|
| Totals | 9–11 | 45% | −11.5% |
|---|
| Teasers | 6–7 | 46% | −16.7% |
|---|
| Player props | 2–1 | 67% | +20.3% |
|---|
| Specials | 1–0 | 100% | +120.0% |
|---|
| Tested rule | 11–4–1 | 73% | +37.2% |
|---|
| Price edge | 0–1 | 0% | −100.0% |
|---|
| Somi's pick | 20–15 | 57% | +13.7% |
|---|
| Earlier model (before 9 Oct) | 23–18–1 | 56% | +7.6% |
|---|
Every settled pick, by month. Tap a month to open it.
November 20262–2 · −0.05u4 picks
BALatBUF
Ravens +3.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
-125
Fanatics
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Bills 36, Ravens 10
Top reasonSomi's pick. Circa has 84% of the spread money on Baltimore; Lamar Jackson is active.
Note+3.5 is an alternate line at Fanatics (-125); the main line is +3.
0.5ustaked
MINatDET
Lions -3.5
Somi's pick
Won
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
+100
Fanatics
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Lions 19, Vikings 15
Top reasonSomi's pick. Lions -3.5 at even money at Fanatics.
NoteProven YouTube handicappers lean Detroit.
0.5ustaked
KCatDEN
Broncos +1.5
Somi's pick
Won
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
-110
BetMGM
Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Broncos 28, Chiefs 24
Top reasonSomi's pick. +1.5 at BetMGM, half a point better than Fanatics (+1).
NoteProven YouTube handicappers are 7-1 on Denver.
0.5ustaked
DENatATL
Teaser: Broncos +7.5 / Falcons +8.5
Somi's pick
Lost
6-point teaser: Chiefs at Broncos, Falcons at Buccaneers
-120
Fanatics
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Broncos 28-24 W; Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0 L
Top reasonSomi's pick. Both legs move through 3 and 7: Broncos +1.5 to +7.5, Falcons +2.5 to +8.5.
NoteTwo-team 6-point NFL teaser.
0.5ustaked
October 202638–24–1 · +5.74u64 picks
ORSTatFRES
Fresno State +6
Tested rule
Won
Oregon State at Fresno State Bulldogs
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET
Fresno State 38, Oregon State 22
Top reasonCollege late-down luck fade: Oregon State’s 3rd/4th-down results are far ahead of its early-down play. 59.5% against the closing spread 2022-26.
NotePrice check: +6 -110 at Fanatics, about 7% better than Pinnacle’s fair price.
0.5ustaked
NIUatUNLV
NIU +24.5
Tested rule
Won
Northern Illinois at UNLV Rebels
-115
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET
UNLV 31, Northern Illinois 24
Top reasonCollege luck fade plus turnover luck on UNLV (double luck: 64% against the spread, 170 games).
NotePrice check: +24.5 -115 at Fanatics, about 6% better than Pinnacle’s fair price.
0.5ustaked
MIAatUNC
North Carolina +14.5
Somi's pick
Won
Miami at North Carolina Tar Heels
-115
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET
Miami 38, North Carolina 35
Top reasonSomi's pick. Proven YouTube handicappers 4-0 against Miami; sharp money on North Carolina.
NoteTaken earlier in the week at +14.5 -115 (Fanatics); the line closed +13.5.
0.5ustaked
OSUatUSC
USC +6.5
Somi's pick
Won
Ohio State at USC Trojans
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET
USC 30, Ohio State 18
Top reasonSomi's pick. Ohio State starting QB Julian Sayin out.
NoteCirca had 75% of the spread money on USC.
0.5ustaked
PURatPSU
Penn State -10.5
Somi's pick
Won
Purdue at Penn State Nittany Lions
-105
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET
Penn State 31, Purdue 17
Top reasonSomi's pick. Circa had 92% of the spread money on Penn State.
NotePenn State won by 14.
0.5ustaked
KSUatCOLO
Colorado -2
Somi's pick
Won
Kansas State at Colorado Buffaloes
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET
Colorado 27, Kansas State 24
Top reasonSomi's pick. Kansas State starting QB Avery Johnson out.
NoteBet Friday at -2 -110 (Fanatics and BetMGM); Colorado won by 3.
0.5ustaked
TULatCLT
Charlotte +8.5
Somi's pick
Won
Tulane at Charlotte 49ers
-110
FanDuel
Fri Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
Tulane 38, Charlotte 31
Top reasonSomi's pick. Best number at our books before kickoff (+8.5 at FanDuel).
NoteCharlotte lost by 7 and covered.
0.5ustaked
TEMatECU
Temple +6
Tested rule
Lost
Temple at East Carolina Pirates
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET
East Carolina 17, Temple 9
Top reasonCollege late-down luck fade: East Carolina’s 3rd/4th-down results are far ahead of its early-down play. 59.5% against the closing spread 2022-26.
NoteReleased 27 Oct at +6 -110 (Side Score 56.2). Most books have moved to +5.5 since.
0.5ustaked
CARatGB
Panthers +3.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Panthers at Green Bay Packers
-102
BetMGM
Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
Packers 27, Panthers 19
Top reasonSomi's pick. +3.5 -102 at BetMGM, the best price at our books (Fanatics +3.5 -110).
NoteSharp money: Circa has 80% of the spread money on Carolina on 47% of the bets, and a top-rated Polymarket account holds $10,000 on Panthers +3.5. Pinnacle prices it close to a coin flip; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
CARatGB
Trey Smack Over 1.5 field goals
Somi's pick
Lost
Panthers at Green Bay Packers
+105
Fanatics
Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
Packers 27, Panthers 19 (0 FG attempts)
Top reasonSomi's pick. +105 at Fanatics vs about even money at the other books (fair 50.6%).
NotePlayer prop - tracked separately until our prop record is proven.
0.5ustaked
KCatSEA
Seahawks -2.5
Somi's pick
Won
Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
-118
BetRivers
Sun Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET
Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20
Top reasonSomi's pick. -2.5 at BetRivers (Fanatics, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars have -3).
NoteYouTube pickers 12-5 on Seattle. Pinnacle prices it a little better than a coin flip at -2.5; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
LARatLV
Raiders +3.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
-112
BetMGM
Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET
Rams 35, Raiders 21
Top reasonSomi's pick. +3.5 -112 at BetMGM, the best price at our books (Fanatics +3.5 -120).
NoteThe best-graded side on the NFL board (Side Score 53.0) - Pinnacle has it a little better than a coin flip; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
GBatDET
Lions -3.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Packers at Detroit Lions
-105
DraftKings
Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET
Packers 17, Lions 20
Top reasonSomi's pick. -3.5 -105 at DraftKings, the best price at our books (Fanatics -3.5 -110).
NoteDetroit off a bye; Green Bay without Micah Parsons. Pinnacle prices it close to a coin flip at -3.5; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
CLEatTEN
Deshaun Watson Over 194.5 passing yards
Somi's pick
Won
Browns at Tennessee Titans
-115
Bally Bet
Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Deshaun Watson 308 passing yards
Top reasonSomi's pick. Most books post 204.5; Bally Bet's 194.5 is 10 yards better.
NoteOur projection: 214 passing yards. Player prop - tracked separately until our prop record is proven.
0.5ustaked
INDatMIN
Kyler Murray Over 4.5 rush attempts
Somi's pick
Won
Colts at Minnesota Vikings
-135
Hard Rock Bet
Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Kyler Murray 5 rush attempts
Top reasonSomi's pick. Most books post 5.5; Hard Rock's 4.5 means he only needs 5 carries.
NoteOur projection: 5.2 rush attempts. Player prop - tracked separately until our prop record is proven.
0.5ustaked
INDatMIN
Colts +6.5
Somi's pick
Won
Colts at Minnesota Vikings
+100
Caesars
Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Colts 10, Vikings 16
Top reasonSomi's pick. +6.5 at even money at Caesars, the best price at our books (Fanatics +6.5 -110).
NoteYouTube pickers 10-6 on Indianapolis. Pinnacle prices it a coin flip at +6.5; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
SFatATL
Falcons +3
Somi's pick
Won
49ers at Atlanta Falcons
-118
BetRivers
Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
49ers 20, Falcons 29
Top reasonSomi's pick. +3 at BetRivers is the only +3 at our books (Fanatics and the rest have +2.5).
NoteEvery YouTube picker we follow on this game is on Atlanta (16-0). Pinnacle prices this close to a coin flip; no tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
ULLatUSM
Southern Miss +10
Tested rule
Won
Louisiana at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Louisiana 31, Southern Miss 35
Top reasonCollege late-down luck fade: Louisiana’s 3rd/4th-down results are far ahead of its early-down play. 59.5% against the closing spread 2022-26.
NoteSide Score 55.9. Re-checked Sat 24 Oct: Circa has 76% of its money on Southern Miss; line steady at +10 at Pinnacle and every Virginia book; QB Hampton out since late September (Lyddy starting) - already in the line. No integrity flags.
0.5ustaked
BYUatUCF
UCF +7
Somi's pick
Won
BYU at UCF Knights
+100
Fanatics
Sat Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET
BYU 31, UCF 39
Top reasonSomi's pick. UCF +7 at home against BYU; Fanatics had +7 at even money.
NoteUCF won the game outright 39-31.
0.5ustaked
TENNatSC
South Carolina -2.5
Tested rule
Won
Tennessee at South Carolina Gamecocks
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET
Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27
Top reasonCollege reverse line move: only 18% of bets on South Carolina, yet the line moved from +2.5 to -2.5 and the sharp money is on them. 61.2% against the closing spread 2023-25.
NoteSide Score 59.0. Re-checked Sat 24 Oct: only 18% of bets on South Carolina but Circa has 71% of its money on them, and the line moved +2.5 to -2.5. Tennessee starts George MacIntyre (announced Tuesday, in the line); SC starting QB healthy; two SC offensive linemen out, RB Jawarn Howell doubtful. No integrity flags.
0.5ustaked
AKRatKENT
Akron +3.5
Price edge
Lost
Akron at Kent State Golden Flashes
-114
Bally Bet
Sat Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET
Akron 20, Kent State 35
Top reasonPrice edge: Bally Bet’s +3.5 is better than Pinnacle’s fair line (Kent State -3). Similar college price gaps kept +5% value at Pinnacle’s close.
NoteSide Score 54.0. Circa: 98% of the spread money on Akron; line steady at Kent State -3 to -3.5; Fanatics only has +3, so +3.5 -114 at Bally Bet. No injury or QB news, no integrity flags.
0.5ustaked
DALatGB
Cowboys +1.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
-114
FanDuel
Sun Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET
Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23
Top reasonSomi's pick. +1.5 at FanDuel is the best number at our books (Caesars and BetMGM have +1).
NotePinnacle prices this close to a coin flip (Cowboys +1). No tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side.
0.5ustaked
BUFatLV
Raiders +5.5
Somi's pick
Won
Raiders vs Buffalo Bills
-110
DraftKings
Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30
Top reasonSomi's pick. The top Circa Million entrants lean Raiders, the bottom of the standings leans Bills.
NotePinnacle has Bills -4.5, so +5.5 is a point better than the sharp number. +5.5 -110 also at Courtside and Hard Rock Bet. No tested SomiPicks rule fires.
0.5ustaked
TB+DAL
6-pt teaser: Buccaneers +8.5 / Cowboys +7.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Buccaneers vs Steelers · Cowboys at Packers
-125
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 · Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23
Top reasonBoth legs are short underdogs teased through 3 and 7. Bucs +2.5 sits in a low-total game (39.5), the best teaser spot we track (about 76% a leg).
NoteSomi's pick. The Cowboys leg is in a 53-total game, where these legs have hit closer to 71%. Cowboys +1.5 is at DraftKings, FanDuel, Hard Rock and Fliff. Tampa Bay starts Jalon Daniels (Baker Mayfield out). Cowboys play Sun 8:20 PM ET.
0.5ustaked
NOatNYG
Saints moneyline
Somi's pick
Won
Saints at New York Giants
-106
Courtside
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27
Top reasonSomi's pick. 64% of the bottom Circa Million entrants are on the Giants.
NotePinnacle prices it close to a coin flip (about 50.5% for New Orleans).
0.5ustaked
TENatIND
Titans +7
Somi's pick
Won
Titans at Indianapolis Colts
-110
BetMGM
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20
Top reasonSomi's pick. 80% of the top Circa Million entrants are on the Titans; the bottom of the standings is split.
NoteBetMGM has +7 - every other Virginia book has +6.5, so take it there. Pinnacle has Colts -6.5, so this is close to a coin flip at the price; no tested SomiPicks rule fires.
0.5ustaked
HOU+ATL
6-pt teaser: Texans +8.5 / Falcons +7.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Texans vs Jaguars (London) · Falcons vs Bears
-125
Sun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET
Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 · Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23
Top reasonBoth legs are short underdogs teased through 3 and 7. Texans +2.5 sits in a low-total game (42.5), the best teaser spot we track (about 76% a leg).
NoteSomi's pick. The Falcons leg is in a 51.5-total game, where these legs have hit closer to 71%. Falcons +1.5 is at DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars and Fliff - other books have +1 or +0.5. Penix has no injury designation.
0.5ustaked
SJSUatUTEP
UTEP +7
Somi's pick
Lost
UTEP vs San Jose State
-103
Bally Bet
Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM ET
San Jose State 24, UTEP 11
Top reason83% of the spread money at Circa is on UTEP. San Jose State QB Weaver is questionable, its leading rusher is out and WR Cooper Hoch is questionable.
NoteAbout 53% to win at this price - below our 55% bar, so a small Somi pick, not a red alert. The line already moved from +10 to +7; UTEP QB EJ Colson (concussion) is questionable but expected back.
0.25ustaked
UKatOU
Kentucky +6.5
Tested rule
Won
Kentucky at Oklahoma Sooners
-104
Caesars
Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13
Top reasonOklahoma's 3rd- and 4th-down results are running far ahead of how it plays on early downs - fading that kind of luck won 55.3% (2014-20), 54.3% (2021-23) and 63.3% (2024-26).
Note99% of the spread money at Circa is on Kentucky. RB CJ Baxter is a game-time decision but expected to play; LB Alex Afari was cleared to play Friday.
0.5ustaked
TROYatULL
Troy +3.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Troy at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
-109
Bally Bet
Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET
Troy 6, Louisiana 33
Top reason100% of the spread money at Circa is on Troy, and Louisiana is without Ja'Corian Norris (concussion).
NoteAbout 53% to win at this price - below our 55% bar, so a small Somi pick, not a red alert. DraftKings and Caesars are at +3 - take +3.5.
0.25ustaked
UNLVatAF
Air Force moneyline
Somi's pick
Won
Air Force vs UNLV Rebels
-105
FanDuel
Sat Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
UNLV 31, Air Force 41
Top reasonSomi's pick. 84% of the spread money at Circa is on Air Force.
NoteThe sharp price (Pinnacle) has this close to a coin flip, about 49% for Air Force - no tested SomiPicks rule fires. The moneyline at -105 is the best way to back Air Force at our books (most books have Air Force -1.5).
0.5ustaked
NIUatWYO
Northern Illinois/Wyoming Under 42.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Northern Illinois at Wyoming Cowboys
-110
Hard Rock Bet
Sat Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41
Top reasonPinnacle hangs 41, so 42.5 gives an extra 1.5 points. 100% of the total money at Circa is on the under; NIU is 0-5 and Wyoming's offense has stalled.
NoteAbout 53% to win at this price - below our 55% bar, so a small Somi pick, not a red alert. Most other books are at 41.5 - take 42.5 only.
0.25ustaked
SEAatDEN
Seahawks -2.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Seahawks at Denver Broncos
-108
BetMGM
Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET
Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (OT)
Top reasonDenver is without its top corner, Pat Surtain II.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side - it is a Somi pick, not a red alert.
0.5ustaked
ARIvsDET
Cardinals +5.5
Somi's pick
Lost
Cardinals vs Detroit Lions
-108
LowVig
Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21
Top reason56% of the spread money at Circa is on Arizona, and Detroit is without safety Brian Branch and corner Rock Ya-Sin.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side - it is a Somi pick, not a red alert. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out (coach's decision).
0.5ustaked
ARIvsDET
Special: Trey McBride (Cardinals) anytime touchdown
Special
Won
Cardinals vs Detroit Lions
+120
DraftKings
Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
McBride 9-yard TD catch, 4th quarter (Lions 45, Cardinals 21)
Top reasonBest price across 13 books (most have +105 to +115). +120 implies 45.5%.
NoteSpecial play: SomiPicks has no tested rule on player props, so this one is a feel pick, not a red alert.
0.3ustaked
LACvsDEN
Chargers +3.5
Tested rule
Lost
Chargers vs Denver Broncos
-103
LowVig
Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET
Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17
Top reasonBuy-low: the Chargers are 0-3-1 against the spread, missing by 10 points a game. Teams missing by 7+ a game after 4+ games covered 73-55 (57.0%), 2018-25. Denver is without both starting corners, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.
NoteCirca money leans Denver (54%), and the Chargers are missing four offensive linemen.
0.5ustaked
NO+GB
6-pt teaser: Saints +8.5 / Packers +7.5
Tested rule
Lost
Saints vs Vikings · Packers vs Bears
-125
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Vikings 23, Saints 13 (Saints +8.5 missed) · Bears 7, Packers 31
Top reasonSaints +2.5 teased to +8.5 crosses 3 and 7: underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased through both won 133-35 per leg (79.2%), 2018-25, with a total of 44.5 or less. Break-even is 74.5% per leg at -125.
NotePackers +1.5 to +7.5: the same kind of leg with a 47 total went 86-26 per leg (76.8%), 2018-25.
0.5ustaked
PITvsIND
Steelers -2.5
Somi's pick
Won
Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
-114
Caesars
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34
Top reason98% of the spread money at Circa is on Pittsburgh.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side - it is a Somi pick, not a red alert. Rain and 10-11 mph wind forecast; Steelers CB Jamel Dean is out.
0.5ustaked
TENvsHOU
Titans +7
Somi's pick
Lost
Titans vs Houston Texans
-105
FanDuel
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3
Top reason58% of the spread money at Circa is on Tennessee, and three Texans offensive linemen are questionable with illness.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side - it is a Somi pick, not a red alert. No book offers +7.5 right now, so the play is posted at +7.
0.5ustaked
NYJvsCLE
Jets -1.5
Somi's pick
Won
Jets vs Cleveland Browns
-120
FanDuel
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17
Top reasonA point better than the -2.5 most books show. 87% of the spread money at Circa is on the Jets, and Cleveland is without defensive tackles Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this side - it is a Somi pick, not a red alert. Jets RB Breece Hall is out.
0.5ustaked
GBvsCHI
Packers +2
Tested rule
Won
Packers vs Chicago Bears
-110
MyBookie
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31
Top reasonBuy-low: the Packers are 0-3-1 against the spread, missing by 10.4 points a game. Teams missing by 7+ a game after 4+ games covered 73-55 (57.0%), 2018-25. 68% of the spread money at Circa is on Green Bay, and Chicago starts backup Tyson Bagent.
NoteMost books have +1.5; MyBookie's +2 is the best number. Packers are without Micah Parsons.
0.5ustaked
CLEatNYJ
Browns/Jets Under 40
Tested rule
Won
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
-108
BetRivers
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (29 total)
Top reasonSpread 3 or less, outdoors: Under 302-227 (57.1%), 2018-25. 98% of the total money at Circa is on the under.
0.5ustaked
FRESvsBSU
Fresno State +7
Tested rule
Push
Fresno State vs Boise State
-106
LowVig
Sat Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET
Boise State 38, Fresno State 31 (lost by 7)
Top reasonFade 80%+ of the spread tickets (84% on Boise State): 196-145 (57.5%), 2022-25. 67% of the spread money at Circa is on Fresno.
NoteAlso fires: fade the late-down luck team (Boise State), 145-109.
0.5ustaked
CLE+NO
6-pt teaser: Browns +8.5 / Saints +8.5
Tested rule
Void
Browns at Jets · Saints vs Vikings
-125
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Pulled by Somi before kickoff (Oct 11)
Top reasonBrowns +2.5 and Saints +2.5 teased to +8.5 both cross 3 and 7. Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased through both won 133-35 per leg (79.2%), 2018-25, with a total of 44.5 or less. Break-even is 74.5% per leg at -125.
0.5ustaked
UGAatBAMA
Georgia +2.5
Somi's pick
Won
Georgia at Alabama
-110
Bovada
Sat Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Georgia 20, Alabama 17
Top reasonA point better than the +1.5 most books show; 79% of the spread money at Circa is on Georgia. Hold the Phone and SportsLine both on Georgia this week.
NoteNo tested SomiPicks rule fires on this game - the edge is the number.
0.5ustaked
GASOvsJMU
Georgia Southern +7.5
Tested rule
Won
Georgia Southern vs James Madison
-110
Fanatics
Sat Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24
Top reasonSharp reverse line move: James Madison opened -10 and is down to -7.5 with most bets on JMU. 79-50 (61.2%), 2023-25.
0.5ustaked
UKvsLSU
Kentucky +9.5
Tested rule
Won
Kentucky vs LSU
-110
BetRivers
Sat Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
LSU 34, Kentucky 35 (OT)
Top reasonFade the late-down luck team (LSU): 145-109 (57.1%), 2022-25. Circa: 79% of the spread money on Kentucky.
0.5ustaked
MDatOSU
Maryland +33.5
Tested rule
Won
Maryland at Ohio State
-110
FanDuel
Sat Oct 10, 4:15 PM ET
Maryland 16, Ohio State 45
Top reasonSharp reverse line move: Ohio State opened -37.5 and is down to -33.5 with most bets on Ohio State. 79-50 (61.2%), 2023-25. Circa money also leans Maryland (59%).
0.5ustaked
GTvsDUKE
Georgia Tech +7
Tested rule
Won
Georgia Tech vs Duke
-120
BetRivers
Sat Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28
Top reasonFade the late-down luck team (Duke): 145-109 (57.1%), 2022-25. 97% of the spread money at Circa is on Georgia Tech.
0.5ustaked
TAMUatMIZ
Texas A&M/Missouri Over 49
Tested rule
Lost
Texas A&M at Missouri
-110
BetRivers
Sat Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Texas A&M 6, Missouri 27 (33 total)
Top reasonCollege overs with 90%+ of the money on them: 122-91 (57.3%), 2023-25. 92% of the total money at Circa is on the over too.
0.5ustaked
SEA+ATL
6-pt teaser: Seahawks -1 / Falcons +8.5
Earlier model
Won
Seahawks vs Chargers · Falcons at Saints
-120
Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Both legs covered (Falcons 45-24 at Saints)
Top reasonFalcons +2.5 teased to +8.5 crosses 3 and 7; small underdogs teased through both won 77.7% per leg (2018-25, totals 45 to 48.5).
NoteSeahawks -7 teased to -1 crosses 3 and 6. Favourite legs like this are not a tested teaser signal (break-even is 73.9% per leg at -120).
0.5ustaked
NYG+DEN
6-pt teaser: Giants +8.5 / Broncos +8.5
Earlier model
Lost
Giants vs Cardinals · Broncos at 49ers
-120
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Cardinals 24, Giants 36 · Broncos 14, 49ers 24
Top reasonGiants +2.5 and Broncos +2.5 teased to +8.5 both cross 3 and 7, the two most common NFL margins.
TestedSmall underdogs (+1.5 to +2.5) teased through 3 and 7 won 78.9% per leg since 2018 with a total of 44.5 or less (Giants) and 77.7% with a total of 45 to 48.5 (Broncos). Break-even is 73.9% per leg at -120.
0.5ustaked
HOUvsDAL
Houston Texans -3
Earlier model
Lost
vs Dallas Cowboys
-110
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Cowboys 34, Texans 30
Top trendTexans have covered 12-3 (80%) in games like this one — covering 1/3 or less so far.
TrendTexans have covered 17-7 (71%) in games like this one — after two straight non-covers.
TrendTexans have covered 9-4 (69%) in games like this one — Head coach: DeMeco Ryans, after failing to cover, before a road game.
0.5ustaked
MIA+DEN
6-pt teaser: Dolphins +17 / Broncos +8.5
Earlier model
Lost
Dolphins at Vikings · Broncos at 49ers
-120
Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Dolphins 10, Vikings 15 · Broncos 14, 49ers 24
Top reasonBroncos +2.5 teased to +8.5 crosses 3 and 7; small underdogs teased through both won 77.7% per leg (2018-25, totals 45 to 48.5).
NoteDolphins +17 is a big-underdog leg; it is not in the tested teaser range (+1.5 to +2.5).
0.5ustaked
TENatBAL
Under 43.5
Earlier model
Won
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
-110
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Titans 18, Ravens 24
Top trendRavens games have gone under 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — QB: Lamar Jackson, before a prime-time game, opponent after a road game.
TrendTitans games have gone under 11-5 (69%) in games like this one — Head coach: Robert Saleh, on the road, opponent averaging 7+ yards per pass attempt.
TrendRavens games have gone under 36-21 (63%) in games like this one — opponent allowing 7+ yards per pass attempt.
0.5ustaked
NUvsPSU
Northwestern +3
Earlier model
Won
vs Penn State
-120
Fri Oct 2, 8:00 PM ET
Penn State 13, Northwestern 34
Top trendNorthwestern has covered 7-3 (70%) in games like this one — a home underdog, before a home game.
TrendNorthwestern has covered 24-16 (60%) in games like this one — after a road game.
TrendNorthwestern has covered 19-13 (59%) in games like this one — Elo rates team 250+ worse than opponent.
0.5ustaked
LAatPHI
Los Angeles Rams -3
Earlier model
Won
at Philadelphia Eagles
-110
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Rams 24, Eagles 20
Top trendRams have covered 10-2 (83%) in games like this one — Head coach: Sean McVay, outdoors, QB with 50+ starts for the team.
TrendRams have covered 16-6 (73%) in games like this one — QB: Matthew Stafford, after a shootout (55+ points).
TrendRams have covered 19-8 (70%) in games like this one — Head coach: Sean McVay, QB with 50+ starts for the team.
0.5ustaked
NCSUvsLOU
NC State +3.5
Earlier model
Won
vs Louisville
-110
Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Louisville 28, NC State 31
Top trendNC State has covered 10-3 (77%) in games like this one — a home underdog.
TrendNC State has covered 25-18 (58%) in games like this one — at home.
BaselineNC State cover 46% of the time overall; in this spot it is 45%, so the situation is worth about 1 fewer points.
0.5ustaked
MIZvsFLA
Missouri +6
Earlier model
Won
vs Florida
-110
Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Florida 17, Missouri 45
Top trendMissouri has covered 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — opponent after a 21+ point win, opponent after two straight covers.
TrendMissouri has covered 8-3 (73%) in games like this one — after a road game, opponent stepping down in class from last week.
TrendMissouri has covered 10-5 (67%) in games like this one — a home underdog.
0.5ustaked
BUF+CLE
6-pt teaser: Bills -1 / Browns +8.5
Earlier model
Lost
Bills vs Patriots · Browns vs Steelers
-120
Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Patriots 29, Bills 26 · Steelers 24, Browns 27
Top reasonBrowns +2.5 teased to +8.5 is the classic spot: underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased through 3 and 7 covered about 78% of the time from 2018-25 in low-total games like this one.
NoteBills -7 teased to -1 crosses 7 and 3. Favourites teased this way have not shown the same tested edge as the underdog legs.
0.5ustaked
JAXatCIN
Over 51
Earlier model
Lost
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
-110
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Jaguars 22, Bengals 17
Top trendJaguars games have gone over 14-4 (78%) in games like this one — after a win, opponent after a divisional game.
TrendBengals games have gone over 14-5 (74%) in games like this one — winning record so far, before a road game.
TrendBengals games have gone over 14-5 (74%) in games like this one — Head coach: Zac Taylor, at home, after failing to cover.
0.5ustaked
CINatARIZ
Cincinnati +7.5
Earlier model
Lost
at Arizona
-110
Sat Oct 3, 11:00 PM ET
Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34
Top trendCincinnati has covered 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — after covering, opponent after two straight wins.
TrendCincinnati has covered 7-3 (70%) in games like this one — after a prime-time game, opponent after a road game.
BaselineCincinnati cover 48% of the time overall; in this spot it is 46%, so the situation is worth about 1 fewer points.
0.5ustaked
WASHatUSC
Under 59.5
Earlier model
Won
Washington at USC
-110
Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Washington 21, USC 25
Top trendWashington games have gone under 25-12 (68%) in games like this one — on the road.
TrendWashington games have gone under 16-7 (70%) in games like this one — underdog.
TrendWashington games have gone under 36-21 (63%) in games like this one — before a home game.
0.5ustaked
CLEvsPIT
Cleveland Browns +3
Earlier model
Won
vs Pittsburgh Steelers
-110
Thu Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Steelers 24, Browns 27
Top trendBrowns have covered 14-5 (74%) in games like this one — divisional game, before a road game.
TrendBrowns have covered 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — a home underdog, opponent after a divisional game.
TrendBrowns have covered 15-7 (68%) in games like this one — QB: Deshaun Watson, after a home game.
0.5ustaked
September 202615–12–1 · +0.82u28 picks
IND+DEN
6-pt teaser: Colts +8 / Broncos +8.5
Earlier model
Won
Colts vs Texans · Broncos vs Rams
-125
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Both legs covered: Colts 19-17, Broncos 30-26
Top reasonEvery leg is an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teased 6 points through 7, the classic teaser spot. Legs like these covered about 75-78% of the time, and a 2-team teaser breaks even at about 73%, so -125 is still inside it.
0.5ustaked
TB+DEN
6-pt teaser: Buccaneers +7.5 / Broncos +8.5
Earlier model
Won
Buccaneers vs Vikings · Broncos vs Rams
-125
Sun Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
Both legs covered: Bucs lost 23-16, Broncos 30-26
Top reasonEvery leg is an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teased 6 points through 7, the classic teaser spot. Legs like these covered about 75-78% of the time, and a 2-team teaser breaks even at about 73%, so -125 is still inside it.
0.5ustaked
TEN+TB
6-pt teaser: Titans +8.5 / Buccaneers +7.5
Earlier model
Won
Titans at Giants · Buccaneers vs Vikings
-125
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Both legs covered: Titans lost 12-7, Bucs lost 23-16
Top reasonEvery leg is an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teased 6 points through 7, the classic teaser spot. Legs like these covered about 75-78% of the time, and a 2-team teaser breaks even at about 73%, so -125 is still inside it.
0.5ustaked
CLE+TEN
6-pt teaser: Browns +9 / Titans +8.5
Earlier model
Won
Browns vs Panthers · Titans at Giants
-125
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Both legs covered: Browns 21-18, Titans lost 12-7
Top reasonEvery leg is an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teased 6 points through 7, the classic teaser spot. Legs like these covered about 75-78% of the time, and a 2-team teaser breaks even at about 73%, so -125 is still inside it.
0.5ustaked
PHIatCHI
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Earlier model
Lost
at Chicago Bears
-110
Mon Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET
Eagles 7, Bears 27
Top reasonSteam with the money: the line moved 2+ points toward Philadelphia with the money behind it. 129-97 (57%).
0.5ustaked
SEAatWAS
Under 40.5
Earlier model
Lost
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
-110
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Seahawks 31, Commanders 33 (64)
Top reasonWind: 10-19 mph at kickoff. NFL unders in 10-19 mph wind at kickoff went 527-414 (56%).
0.5ustaked
CINatPIT
Under 43
Earlier model
Lost
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
-110
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Bengals 27, Steelers 30 (57)
Top reasonWind: 10-19 mph at kickoff. NFL unders in 10-19 mph wind at kickoff went 527-414 (56%).
0.5ustaked
CARatCLE
Under 42.5
Earlier model
Won
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
-110
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Panthers 18, Browns 21 (39)
Top reasonWind: 10-19 mph at kickoff. NFL unders in 10-19 mph wind at kickoff went 527-414 (56%).
0.5ustaked
CLE+IND
6-pt teaser: Browns +9 / Colts +8
Earlier model
Won
Browns vs Panthers · Colts vs Texans
-125
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Both legs covered: Browns 21-18, Colts 19-17
Top reasonEvery leg is an underdog of +1.5 to +3 teased 6 points through 7, the classic teaser spot. Legs like these covered about 75-78% of the time, and a 2-team teaser breaks even at about 73%, so -125 is still inside it.
0.5ustaked
SACvsMASS
Sacramento State +5
Earlier model
Lost
vs Massachusetts
-110
Sat Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
UMass 35, Sacramento State 6
Top reasonCollege sharp reverse line move: 29% of spread tickets on Sacramento State, and the line moved from +5.5 toward them. The signal went 79-50-1 (61%) in 2023-25.
0.5ustaked
USUvsTROY
Utah State -2.5
Earlier model
Won
vs Troy
-110
Sat Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Utah State 21, Troy 10
Top reasonCollege sharp reverse line move: only 14% of spread tickets on Utah State, yet the line moved toward them. The signal went 79-50-1 (61%) in 2023-25.
0.5ustaked
FLAvsMISS
Florida -3
Earlier model
Won
vs Ole Miss
-110
Sat Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Florida 52, Ole Miss 28
Top reasonCollege sharp reverse line move: only 17% of spread tickets on Florida, yet the line moved from -1.5 to -3.5 toward them. The signal went 79-50-1 (61%) in 2023-25.
0.5ustaked
PURatUCLA
Under 53
Earlier model
Lost
Purdue at UCLA
-110
Sat Sep 19, 8:00 PM PT
Purdue 38, UCLA 52 (90)
Top trendUCLA games have gone under 17-6 (74%) in games like this one — late-night kickoff, favoured.
TrendPurdue games have gone under 18-7 (72%) in games like this one — Saturday game, after a loss by 1-7.
TrendUCLA games have gone under 12-4 (75%) in games like this one — after covering, stepping down in class from last week.
0.33ustaked
MSSTatSC
Under 59
Earlier model
Lost
Mississippi State at South Carolina
-110
Sat Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET
Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34 (75)
Top trendMississippi State games have gone under 24-7 (77%) in games like this one — after covering, after a 21+ point win.
TrendSouth Carolina games have gone under 16-6 (73%) in games like this one — favoured, first four weeks.
TrendMississippi State games have gone under 16-6 (73%) in games like this one — after a road game, after a win.
0.33ustaked
UGAatARK
Under 54.5
Earlier model
Lost
Georgia at Arkansas
-110
Sat Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT
Georgia 45, Arkansas 17 (62)
Top trendGeorgia games have gone under 42-21 (67%) in games like this one — Saturday game, after a 21+ point win.
WeatherWind 11 mph. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph.
TrendArkansas games have gone under 8-2 (80%) in games like this one — after a 21+ point loss, opponent was a winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
FLAatAUB
Under 53
Earlier model
Lost
Florida at Auburn
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Florida 44, Auburn 39 (83)
Top trendAuburn games have gone under 11-1 (92%) in games like this one — after a 21+ point win, first four weeks.
WeatherRain 61% chance. Over sixteen seasons, steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendFlorida games have gone under 9-1 (90%) in games like this one — after covering by 17+, favoured.
0.33ustaked
WMUatRICE
Over 43.5
Earlier model
Won
Western Michigan at Rice
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Western Michigan 28, Rice 21 (49)
Top trendRice games have gone over 19-3 (86%) in games like this one — at home, non-conference game.
TrendWestern Michigan games have gone over 11-3 (79%) in games like this one — prime-time kickoff, after a 21+ point win.
TrendRice games have gone over 24-10 (71%) in games like this one — Saturday game, first four weeks.
0.33ustaked
PURatUCLA
Purdue +14.5
Earlier model
Won
at UCLA
-110
Sat Sep 19, 8:00 PM PT
Purdue 38, UCLA 52
Top trendPurdue has covered 21-10 (68%) in games like this one — on the road, after a loss.
TrendPurdue has covered 11-6 (65%) in games like this one — after a loss by 1-7, underdog.
TrendPurdue has covered 20-10 (67%) in games like this one — on the road, getting 7 or more.
0.33ustaked
FLAatAUB
Florida -2
Earlier model
Won
at Auburn
-110
Sat Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT
Florida 44, Auburn 39
Top trendFlorida has covered 10-3 (77%) in games like this one — conference game, after an outright upset win.
TrendFlorida has covered 12-6 (67%) in games like this one — line within a field goal.
TrendFlorida has covered 11-5 (69%) in games like this one — after an outright upset win.
0.33ustaked
WASatDAL
Over 50.5
Earlier model
Won
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
-110
Sun Sep 20, 3:25 PM CT
Commanders 20, Cowboys 37 (57)
Top trendCommanders games have gone over 14-4 (78%) in games like this one — after a loss by 1-7, after two straight covers.
TrendCowboys games have gone over 27-14 (66%) in games like this one — a total of 47 or more, losing record so far.
TrendCowboys games have gone over 21-12 (64%) in games like this one — September, opponent was a losing team last season.
0.33ustaked
LVatLAC
Over 43.5
Earlier model
Lost
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:05 PM PT
Raiders 26, Chargers 14 (40)
Top trendRaiders games have gone over 30-10 (75%) in games like this one — September, coach's first season with the team.
TrendChargers games have gone over 13-5 (72%) in games like this one — after missing the number by 14+, after two straight losses.
TrendChargers games have gone over 10-5 (67%) in games like this one — after two straight non-covers, winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
PITatNE
Under 41.5
Earlier model
Won
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Steelers 3, Patriots 20 (23)
Top trendSteelers games have gone under 38-16 (70%) in games like this one — after two straight wins, underdog.
TrendPatriots games have gone under 53-29 (65%) in games like this one — after a loss, favoured.
TrendSteelers games have gone under 41-19 (68%) in games like this one — on the road, after two straight covers.
0.33ustaked
CLEatTB
Under 41.5
Earlier model
Lost
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 (42)
Top trendBuccaneers games have gone under 16-7 (70%) in games like this one — favoured by 7 or more, beaten by a losing team last week.
WeatherThunderstorms 76% chance. Over sixteen seasons, steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendBrowns games have gone under 68-46 (60%) in games like this one — after a loss, coach's first season with the team.
0.33ustaked
MINatCHI
Under 48.5
Earlier model
Won
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
-110
Sun Sep 20, 12:00 PM CT
Vikings 9, Bears 3 (12)
Top trendVikings games have gone under 36-14 (72%) in games like this one — after a win, September.
WeatherHigh wind 20 mph, gusts 28 NE, Rain 72% chance. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph and steady rain or snow takes roughly a point and a half off a total.
TrendBears games have gone under 60-43 (58%) in games like this one — after a road game, after an over.
0.33ustaked
NOatBAL
Under 46.5
Earlier model
Won
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Saints 24, Ravens 17 (41)
Top trendRavens games have gone under 24-10 (71%) in games like this one — September, opponent was a losing team last season.
WeatherWind 10 mph S. Over sixteen seasons, unders have run about 56% once wind reaches 10 mph.
TrendSaints games have gone under 19-8 (70%) in games like this one — after a road game, losing team last season.
0.33ustaked
PHIatTEN
Philadelphia Eagles -7
Earlier model
Lost
at Tennessee Titans
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Eagles 24, Titans 20
Top trendEagles have covered 35-17 (67%) in games like this one — after a divisional game, a total of 41 or less.
TrendEagles have covered 72-49 (60%) in games like this one — on the road, winning team last season.
TrendEagles have covered 51-35 (59%) in games like this one — outdoors, after two straight non-covers.
0.33ustaked
GBatNYJ
Green Bay Packers -3
Earlier model
Push
at New York Jets
-110
Sun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
Packers 20, Jets 17
Top trendPackers have covered 42-25 (63%) in games like this one — 1pm ET kickoff, after a divisional game.
TrendPackers have covered 21-12 (64%) in games like this one — after two straight losses, after an over.
TrendPackers have covered 11-5 (69%) in games like this one — after two straight non-covers, September.
0.33ustaked
LACvsLV
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Earlier model
Lost
vs Las Vegas Raiders
-110
Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
Raiders 26, Chargers 14
Top trendChargers have covered 12-5 (71%) in games like this one — indoors, after two straight losses.
TrendChargers have covered 47-31 (60%) in games like this one — divisional game, after an under.
TrendChargers have covered 22-14 (61%) in games like this one — losing record so far, winning team last season.
0.33ustaked
Why we passed last week
Why we passed last week
Red alerts that fired but did not make the card, and how they finished. Passing on them went 5–4 in our favour: 5 would have lost, 4 would have won.
- Bears/Packers Under 47.5 — sharp money at Circa was on the other side. Would have won.
- 49ers/Seahawks Under 46.5 — sharp money at Circa was on the other side. Would have lost.
- Texans/Titans Over 37.5 — sharp money at Circa was on the other side. Would have lost.
- Texans -7 — sharp money at Circa was on the other side. Would have won.
- Eagles +9 — the best price was worse than -110. Would have won.
- Giants/Commanders Under 42 — we could not re-check the morning wind forecast. Would have lost.
- Colts/Steelers Under 43.5 — the total dropped past our limit by Sunday morning. Would have lost.
- Colts +8.5 teaser leg — we used other teaser legs. Would have lost.
- Purdue +2.5 — the ticket count fell below the rule's 80% line before kickoff. Would have won.
02House rules
These are not suggestions. Breaking one of them costs more than any pick makes.
No parlays
Every leg you add multiplies the house edge against you. A two-team parlay at −110 pays 2.6–1 when the fair price is 3–1; a five-teamer pays 25–1 against fair odds near 31–1. Same-game parlays are worse still. One bet, one number. The one exception is a 6-point NFL teaser, and only with underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased through both 3 and 7. Legs like those have covered about 75–78% of the time, and a two-team teaser needs about 73% to break even. Any other teaser is a parlay.
No live betting
In-game prices carry two to four times the margin of a pregame number and move faster than anyone watching a delayed stream can react to. The edge we look for is half a point; live betting gives back several.
Never take a worse number — always take a better one
If the pick says −3 and your book has −3.5, that is not the bet. If it has −2.5, take it. Half a point across 3 in the NFL is worth almost four points of win rate, which is larger than any edge we claim to have in the first place.
Shop every bet across at least three books
The same wager at the best available number rather than the consensus was worth a full point of win rate measured across 7,427 college bets, and three points when the better number crossed 3 or 7. Shopping is the most reliable edge in betting and it is free.
Always check for promos, boosts and bonuses
Odds boosts, risk-free bets and deposit matches are real money and are handed out to keep you playing. Take the ones that apply to a bet you were making anyway. Never make a bet you would not otherwise make in order to clear a promo — that is how they pay for it.
Never bet money you cannot afford to lose
Not money for rent, food, bills or anything with a due date. If losing the bet changes your week, the bet is too big, no matter what the edge is.
One unit = 1% of your bankroll, and it does not move
A $10,000 bankroll is $100 a unit. A $1,000 bankroll is $10 a unit. A $100,000 bankroll is $1,000 a unit. The unit is a fixed share of the roll, not a mood.
Never chase
The stake after a loss is the same as the stake before it. Doubling up to get even is the single fastest way a bankroll goes to zero, and it has nothing to do with whether the next bet is any good.
Write down every bet
Number, price, book, stake, result. Memory keeps the winners and quietly loses the rest. A record you did not keep is a record that says you are doing fine.
Bet the number, not the team
The question is never whether a team is good. It is whether they are better than the price says. A great team at a bad number is a bad bet, and it is the most common one there is.
03Bankroll
One unit is 1% of your bankroll. Pick the roll you can genuinely afford, then let
the unit follow from it.
- $1,000 bankroll
- $10 a unit
- $10,000 bankroll
- $100 a unit
- $100,000 bankroll
- $1,000 a unit
04Worth knowing
Expect to lose a lot of the time
At −110 you need to win 52.4% just to break even. A genuinely good bettor wins 54–56%. That means four losses in ten on a good run, and long losing stretches happen to everyone with a real edge.
Judge the process, not the week
A hundred bets is still a small sample. A winning month does not prove a system and a losing one does not disprove it. Look at whether the numbers were taken at the right price, not at the last five results.
Keep gambling money separate
A separate account or a set amount you top up on a schedule. Mixing it with the money you live on is how the size creeps.
Avoid the parlay that a bad day makes tempting
The bet that gets it all back in one go is always the one with the worst price on the board.
If it stops being fun, stop
Chasing, hiding bets, betting more to feel something, betting to fix a mood — those are not strategy problems. Take a break and talk to someone.
05Baseball, basketball, hockey, tennis and UFC
Same rules as football: a trend has to hold on seasons it was not found on and beat what pure chance produces. We tested tens of thousands of team trends in these sports — who to back, who to fade — and none passed that test, so there are no team-trend plays here.
- What did hold up: price. Using six years of prices from Pinnacle (the sharpest market) and US sportsbooks, the spots where a US book paid more than Pinnacle’s fair price kept their value through the closing line on 2024–26 games they were never fitted to — in hockey, baseball, college and pro football, and UFC; basketball only at some books.
- Small edges, many bets. These are worth about 1–3 cents per dollar on average. They post here only when one clears our bar (+5% expected or 55% to win) inside 36 hours of the start, with the book named — take that book’s number or pass.
- Tracked on paper: the younger fighter as a UFC favorite, the MLB under with a weak road starter, and the NBA reverse line move. Each is graded on paper first and only posts if it keeps winning and keeps beating the closing line.
If betting has stopped being entertainment. If you are chasing losses, hiding bets from
people close to you, betting money meant for something else, or betting to change how you feel,
that is worth taking seriously and it is common. In the US, the National Problem Gambling
Helpline is 1-800-522-4700 — call or text, 24/7 and confidential. Most sportsbooks
also offer deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion in their account settings, and using
them early is a lot easier than using them late.
Disclaimer. SomiPicks is one person's opinions on sports betting, published for
entertainment. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a service, and nothing here is
a guarantee of anything. Every pick can lose and most bettors lose money over time. Past results
do not predict future results, and a winning stretch of any length is not evidence that the next
bet will win.
You are responsible for your own bets and for knowing the law where you are. Sports betting is
legal in some jurisdictions and not others, and age limits vary — 21+ in most US states
that permit it, 18+ in some. Do not bet where it is not legal for you to do so.
SomiPicks is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the NFL, the NCAA, any team,
conference or sportsbook. Team names are used for identification only.